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ARXIV Cancer: colorectal cancer Method: unknown

Microbiome association diversity reflects proximity to the edge of instability

Rubén Calvo, Adrián Roig, Roberto Corral López, José Camacho-Mateu, José A. Cuesta, Miguel A. Muñoz
Published 2026-01-30 12:40
This study introduces an interacting stochastic logistic model (ISLM) to better understand the dynamics of microbial communities, particularly in relation to stability and instability. The model extends traditional stochastic logistic models by incorporating random interaction networks, allowing for the analysis of pairwise covariation in microbiome data. The findings indicate that gut microbiomes from healthy individuals operate near the edge of instability, while dysbiosis-associated states tend to shift towards more stable regimes, facilitating the differentiation of conditions such as colorectal cancer.
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Recent advances in metagenomics have revealed macroecological patterns or "laws" describing robust statistical regularities across microbial communities. Stochastic logistic models (SLMs), which treat species as independent -- akin to ideal gases in physics -- and incorporate environmental noise, reproduce many single-species patterns but cannot account for the pairwise covariation observed in microbiome data. Here we introduce an interacting stochastic logistic model (ISLM) that minimally extends the SLM by sampling an ensemble of random interaction networks chosen to preserve these single-species laws. Using dynamical mean-field theory, we map the model's phase diagram -- stable, chaotic, and unbounded-growth regimes -- where the transition from stable fixed-point to chaos is controlled by network sparsity and interaction heterogeneity via a May-like instability line. Going beyond mean-field theory to account for finite communities, we derive an estimator of an effective stability parameter that quantifies distance to the edge of instability and can be inferred from the width of the distribution of pairwise covariances in empirical species-abundance data. Applying this framework to synthetic data, environmental microbiomes, and human gut cohorts indicates that these communities tend to operate near the edge of instability. Moreover, gut communities from healthy individuals cluster closer to this edge and exhibit broader, more heterogeneous associations, whereas dysbiosis-associated states shift toward more stable regimes -- enabling discrimination across conditions such as Crohn's disease, inflammatory bowel syndrome, and colorectal cancer. Together, our results connect macroecological laws, interaction-network ensembles, and May's stability theory, suggesting that complex communities may benefit from operating near a dynamical phase transition.

ARXIV Cancer: glioma Method: nnU-Net

Training Beyond Convergence: Grokking nnU-Net for Glioma Segmentation in Sub-Saharan MRI

Mohtady Barakat, Omar Salah, Ahmed Yasser, Mostafa Ahmed, Zahirul Arief, Waleed Khan, Dong Zhang, Aondona Iorumbur, Confidence Raymond, Mohannad Barakat, Noha Magdy
Published 2026-01-30 06:54
This study addresses the pressing need for automated glioma segmentation tools in Sub-Saharan Africa, where access to diagnostic imaging is limited. Utilizing the BraTS Africa 2025 Challenge dataset, the authors establish a baseline performance with nnU-Net and investigate the 'grokking' phenomenon to enhance model performance. Two training regimes are evaluated, resulting in high Dice scores for tumor segmentation, demonstrating the potential for improved diagnostic capabilities in resource-constrained settings.
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Gliomas are placing an increasingly clinical burden on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In the region, the median survival for patients remains under two years, and access to diagnostic imaging is extremely limited. These constraints highlight an urgent need for automated tools that can extract the maximum possible information from each available scan, tools that are specifically trained on local data, rather than adapted from high-income settings where conditions are vastly different. We utilize the Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) Africa 2025 Challenge dataset, an expert annotated collection of glioma MRIs. Our objectives are: (i) establish a strong baseline with nnUNet on this dataset, and (ii) explore whether the celebrated "grokking" phenomenon an abrupt, late training jump from memorization to superior generalization can be triggered to push performance without extra labels. We evaluate two training regimes. The first is a fast, budget-conscious approach that limits optimization to just a few epochs, reflecting the constrained GPU resources typically available in African institutions. Despite this limitation, nnUNet achieves strong Dice scores: 92.3% for whole tumor (WH), 86.6% for tumor core (TC), and 86.3% for enhancing tumor (ET). The second regime extends training well beyond the point of convergence, aiming to trigger a grokking-driven performance leap. With this approach, we were able to achieve grokking and enhanced our results to higher Dice scores: 92.2% for whole tumor (WH), 90.1% for tumor core (TC), and 90.2% for enhancing tumor (ET).

ARXIV Cancer: colorectal cancer Method: transformer

EndoCaver: Handling Fog, Blur and Glare in Endoscopic Images via Joint Deblurring-Segmentation

Zhuoyu Wu, Wenhui Ou, Pei-Sze Tan, Jiayan Yang, Wenqi Fang, Zheng Wang, Raphaël C. -W. Phan
Published 2026-01-30 04:18
The paper presents EndoCaver, a lightweight transformer designed to improve endoscopic image analysis for colorectal cancer screening by addressing issues such as lens fogging, motion blur, and glare. The model employs a unidirectional-guided dual-decoder architecture for joint deblurring and segmentation, integrating a Global Attention Module and a Deblurring-Segmentation Aligner. Experimental results indicate that EndoCaver outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy while significantly reducing computational complexity and model parameters, making it suitable for clinical use.
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Endoscopic image analysis is vital for colorectal cancer screening, yet real-world conditions often suffer from lens fogging, motion blur, and specular highlights, which severely compromise automated polyp detection. We propose EndoCaver, a lightweight transformer with a unidirectional-guided dual-decoder architecture, enabling joint multi-task capability for image deblurring and segmentation while significantly reducing computational complexity and model parameters. Specifically, it integrates a Global Attention Module (GAM) for cross-scale aggregation, a Deblurring-Segmentation Aligner (DSA) to transfer restoration cues, and a cosine-based scheduler (LoCoS) for stable multi-task optimisation. Experiments on the Kvasir-SEG dataset show that EndoCaver achieves 0.922 Dice on clean data and 0.889 under severe image degradation, surpassing state-of-the-art methods while reducing model parameters by 90%. These results demonstrate its efficiency and robustness, making it well-suited for on-device clinical deployment. Code is available at https://github.com/ReaganWu/EndoCaver.

ARXIV Cancer: pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma Method: deep learning

Early and Prediagnostic Detection of Pancreatic Cancer from Computed Tomography

Wenxuan Li, Pedro R. A. S. Bassi, Lizhou Wu, Xinze Zhou, Yuxuan Zhao, Qi Chen, Szymon Plotka, Tianyu Lin, Zheren Zhu, Marisa Martin, Justin Caskey, Shanshan Jiang, Xiaoxi Chen, Jaroslaw B. Ćwikla, Artur Sankowski, Yaping Wu, Sergio Decherchi, Andrea Cavalli, Chandana Lall, Cristian Tomasetti, Yaxing Guo, Xuan Yu, Yuqing Cai, Hualin Qiao, Jie Bao, Chenhan Hu, Ximing Wang, Arkadiusz Sitek, Kai Ding, Heng Li, Meiyun Wang, Dexin Yu, Guang Zhang, Yang Yang, Kang Wang, Alan L. Yuille, Zongwei Zhou
Published 2026-01-29 18:55
The study presents an automated system named ePAI designed for the early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) from prediagnostic CT scans. Trained on data from 1,598 patients, ePAI demonstrated high sensitivity and specificity in detecting small PDAC lesions, outperforming expert radiologists in a multi-reader study. The system successfully identified PDACs that were previously overlooked, indicating its potential as an assistive tool for improving early cancer detection.
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Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), one of the deadliest solid malignancies, is often detected at a late and inoperable stage. Retrospective reviews of prediagnostic CT scans, when conducted by expert radiologists aware that the patient later developed PDAC, frequently reveal lesions that were previously overlooked. To help detecting these lesions earlier, we developed an automated system named ePAI (early Pancreatic cancer detection with Artificial Intelligence). It was trained on data from 1,598 patients from a single medical center. In the internal test involving 1,009 patients, ePAI achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.939-0.999, a sensitivity of 95.3%, and a specificity of 98.7% for detecting small PDAC less than 2 cm in diameter, precisely localizing PDAC as small as 2 mm. In an external test involving 7,158 patients across 6 centers, ePAI achieved an AUC of 0.918-0.945, a sensitivity of 91.5%, and a specificity of 88.0%, precisely localizing PDAC as small as 5 mm. Importantly, ePAI detected PDACs on prediagnostic CT scans obtained 3 to 36 months before clinical diagnosis that had originally been overlooked by radiologists. It successfully detected and localized PDACs in 75 of 159 patients, with a median lead time of 347 days before clinical diagnosis. Our multi-reader study showed that ePAI significantly outperformed 30 board-certified radiologists by 50.3% (P < 0.05) in sensitivity while maintaining a comparable specificity of 95.4% in detecting PDACs early and prediagnostic. These findings suggest its potential of ePAI as an assistive tool to improve early detection of pancreatic cancer.

ARXIV Cancer: general cancer Method: joint-embedding prediction architecture

The Patient is not a Moving Document: A World Model Training Paradigm for Longitudinal EHR

Irsyad Adam, Zekai Chen, David Laprade, Shaun Porwal, David Laub, Erik Reinertsen, Arda Pekis, Kevin Brown
Published 2026-01-29 18:49
This paper introduces SMB-Structure, a world model for structured electronic health records (EHR) that simulates patient dynamics rather than treating them as static documents. The model combines joint-embedding prediction architecture (JEPA) with next-token prediction to reconstruct future patient states and predict trajectories based on initial representations. Validation on large-scale cohorts demonstrates that this approach captures disease dynamics more effectively than traditional autoregressive models.
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Large language models (LLMs) trained with next-word-prediction have achieved success as clinical foundation models. Representations from these language backbones yield strong linear probe performance across biomedical tasks, suggesting that patient semantics emerge from next-token prediction at scale. However, this paradigm treats patients as a document to be summarized rather than a dynamical system to be simulated; a patient's trajectory emerges from their state evolving under interventions and time, requiring models that simulate dynamics rather than predict tokens. To address this, we introduce SMB-Structure, a world model for structured EHR that grounds a joint-embedding prediction architecture (JEPA) with next-token prediction (SFT). SFT grounds our model to reconstruct future patient states in token space, while JEPA predicts those futures in latent space from the initial patient representation alone, forcing trajectory dynamics to be encoded before the next state is observed. We validate across two large-scale cohorts: Memorial Sloan Kettering (23,319 oncology patients; 323,000+ patient-years) and INSPECT (19,402 pulmonary embolism patients). Using a linear probe evaluated at multiple points along the disease trajectory, we demonstrate that our training paradigm learns embeddings that capture disease dynamics not recoverable by autoregressive baselines, enabling SMB-Structure to achieve competitive performance on complex tasks characterized by high patient heterogeneity. Model weights are available at https://huggingface.co/standardmodelbio/SMB-v1-1.7B-Structure.

ARXIV Cancer: general cancer Method: unknown

From Future of Work to Future of Workers: Addressing Asymptomatic AI Harms for Dignified Human-AI Interaction

Upol Ehsan, Samir Passi, Koustuv Saha, Todd McNutt, Mark O. Riedl, Sara Alcorn
Published 2026-01-29 16:13
This paper explores the dual role of AI in enhancing productivity while simultaneously eroding human expertise among cancer specialists. Through a year-long study, it identifies chronic harms such as skill atrophy and identity commoditization resulting from AI use. The authors propose a framework for dignified Human-AI interaction aimed at preserving professional knowledge and mitigating the negative impacts of AI on workers' skills.
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In the future of work discourse, AI is touted as the ultimate productivity amplifier. Yet, beneath the efficiency gains lie subtle erosions of human expertise and agency. This paper shifts focus from the future of work to the future of workers by navigating the AI-as-Amplifier Paradox: AI's dual role as enhancer and eroder, simultaneously strengthening performance while eroding underlying expertise. We present a year-long study on the longitudinal use of AI in a high-stakes workplace among cancer specialists. Initial operational gains hid ``intuition rust'': the gradual dulling of expert judgment. These asymptomatic effects evolved into chronic harms, such as skill atrophy and identity commoditization. Building on these findings, we offer a framework for dignified Human-AI interaction co-constructed with professional knowledge workers facing AI-induced skill erosion without traditional labor protections. The framework operationalizes sociotechnical immunity through dual-purpose mechanisms that serve institutional quality goals while building worker power to detect, contain, and recover from skill erosion, and preserve human identity. Evaluated across healthcare and software engineering, our work takes a foundational step toward dignified human-AI interaction futures by balancing productivity with the preservation of human expertise.

ARXIV Cancer: breast cancer Method: foundation models

Investigating the Impact of Histopathological Foundation Models on Regressive Prediction of Homologous Recombination Deficiency

Alexander Blezinger, Wolfgang Nejdl, Ming Tang
Published 2026-01-29 14:06
This study evaluates the effectiveness of histopathological foundation models in predicting homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) scores, a key biomarker for personalized cancer treatment. The authors utilize multiple instance learning frameworks to extract features from whole slide images across various cancer cohorts. Results indicate that models trained on foundation model features outperform baseline methods in predictive accuracy and generalization. The research also introduces a distribution-based upsampling strategy to enhance performance for underrepresented patient populations.
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Foundation models pretrained on large-scale histopathology data have found great success in various fields of computational pathology, but their impact on regressive biomarker prediction remains underexplored. In this work, we systematically evaluate histopathological foundation models for regression-based tasks, demonstrated through the prediction of homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) score - a critical biomarker for personalized cancer treatment. Within multiple instance learning frameworks, we extract patch-level features from whole slide images (WSI) using five state-of-the-art foundation models, and evaluate their impact compared to contrastive learning-based features. Models are trained to predict continuous HRD scores based on these extracted features across breast, endometrial, and lung cancer cohorts from two public medical data collections. Extensive experiments demonstrate that models trained on foundation model features consistently outperform the baseline in terms of predictive accuracy and generalization capabilities while exhibiting systematic differences among the foundation models. Additionally, we propose a distribution-based upsampling strategy to mitigate target imbalance in these datasets, significantly improving the recall and balanced accuracy for underrepresented but clinically important patient populations. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of different sampling strategies and instance bagsizes by ablation studies. Our results highlight the benefits of large-scale histopathological pretraining for more precise and transferable regressive biomarker prediction, showcasing its potential to advance AI-driven precision oncology.

ARXIV Cancer: breast cancer Method: deep learning

DensiThAI, A Multi-View Deep Learning Framework for Breast Density Estimation using Infrared Images

Siva Teja Kakileti, Geetha Manjunath
Published 2026-01-29 07:53
This study presents DensiThAI, a multi-view deep learning framework designed to estimate breast density using infrared thermal images. The research aims to provide a non-ionizing alternative to traditional X-ray mammography for assessing breast density, which is a critical biomarker for breast cancer risk. The framework was tested on a dataset of 3,500 women and demonstrated a mean AUROC of 0.73, indicating effective classification of breast density. The results suggest that thermal imaging could enhance patient experience and optimize workflow in breast density assessment.
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Breast tissue density is a key biomarker of breast cancer risk and a major factor affecting mammographic sensitivity. However, density assessment currently relies almost exclusively on X-ray mammography, an ionizing imaging modality. This study investigates the feasibility of estimating breast density using artificial intelligence over infrared thermal images, offering a non-ionizing imaging approach. The underlying hypothesis is that fibroglandular and adipose tissues exhibit distinct thermophysical and physiological properties, leading to subtle but spatially coherent temperature variations on the breast surface. In this paper, we propose DensiThAI, a multi-view deep learning framework for breast density classification from thermal images. The framework was evaluated on a multi-center dataset of 3,500 women using mammography-derived density labels as reference. Using five standard thermal views, DensiThAI achieved a mean AUROC of 0.73 across 10 random splits, with statistically significant separation between density classes across all splits (p << 0.05). Consistent performance across age cohorts supports the potential of thermal imaging as a non-ionizing approach for breast density assessment with implications for improved patient experience and workflow optimization.

ARXIV Cancer: colorectal cancer Method: diffusion pseudotime

Do Pathology Foundation Models Encode Disease Progression? A Pseudotime Analysis of Visual Representations

Pritika Vig, Ren-Chin Wu, William Lotter
Published 2026-01-29 06:50
This study investigates whether vision foundation models can encode continuous disease progression in computational pathology. By employing diffusion pseudotime analysis, the authors assess how well these models represent disease states along coherent progression directions. The results indicate that pathology-specific models significantly outperform null baselines in recovering trajectory orderings, with vision-only models showing the highest fidelity. The findings suggest that these models can effectively learn to represent continuous processes from static images.
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Vision foundation models trained on discretely sampled images achieve strong performance on classification benchmarks, yet whether their representations encode the continuous processes underlying their training data remains unclear. This question is especially pertinent in computational pathology, where we posit that models whose latent representations implicitly capture continuous disease progression may better reflect underlying biology, support more robust generalization, and enable quantitative analyses of features associated with disease transitions. Using diffusion pseudotime, a method developed to infer developmental trajectories from single-cell transcriptomics, we probe whether foundation models organize disease states along coherent progression directions in representation space. Across four cancer progressions and six models, we find that all pathology-specific models recover trajectory orderings significantly exceeding null baselines, with vision-only models achieving the highest fidelities $(τ> 0.78$ on CRC-Serrated). Model rankings by trajectory fidelity on reference diseases strongly predict few-shot classification performance on held-out diseases ($ρ= 0.92$), and exploratory analysis shows cell-type composition varies smoothly along inferred trajectories in patterns consistent with known stromal remodeling. Together, these results demonstrate that vision foundation models can implicitly learn to represent continuous processes from independent static observations, and that trajectory fidelity provides a complementary measure of representation quality beyond downstream performance. While demonstrated in pathology, this framework could be applied to other domains where continuous processes are observed through static snapshots.

ARXIV Cancer: prostate cancer Method: attention-based multiple instance learning

AI-based Prediction of Biochemical Recurrence from Biopsy and Prostatectomy Samples

Andrea Camilloni, Chiara Micoli, Nita Mulliqi, Erik Everett Palm, Thorgerdur Palsdottir, Kelvin Szolnoky, Xiaoyi Ji, Sol Erika Boman, Andrea Discacciati, Henrik Grönberg, Lars Egevad, Tobias Nordström, Kimmo Kartasalo, Martin Eklund
Published 2026-01-28 20:33
This study focuses on predicting biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with aggressive prostate cancer following radical prostatectomy. An AI-based model was trained on diagnostic biopsy slides to assess patient-specific risk of BCR, achieving notable performance across multiple external cohorts. The integration of clinical variables enhanced prognostic accuracy, indicating that AI can improve postoperative decision-making.
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Biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP) is a surrogate marker for aggressive prostate cancer with adverse outcomes, yet current prognostic tools remain imprecise. We trained an AI-based model on diagnostic prostate biopsy slides from the STHLM3 cohort (n = 676) to predict patient-specific risk of BCR, using foundation models and attention-based multiple instance learning. Generalizability was assessed across three external RP cohorts: LEOPARD (n = 508), CHIMERA (n = 95), and TCGA-PRAD (n = 379). The image-based approach achieved 5-year time-dependent AUCs of 0.64, 0.70, and 0.70, respectively. Integrating clinical variables added complementary prognostic value and enabled statistically significant risk stratification. Compared with guideline-based CAPRA-S, AI incrementally improved postoperative prognostication. These findings suggest biopsy-trained histopathology AI can generalize across specimen types to support preoperative and postoperative decision making, but the added value of AI-based multimodal approaches over simpler predictive models should be critically scrutinized in further studies.